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NHL Prospect Watch: Detroit Red Wings

These are not the Mike Babcock Red Wings anymore. In part, that is because Babcock has moved on to coach the Toronto Maple Leafs. But the change has been felt at a philosophical level through the system’s developmental process as well. It used to be that the Red Wings were famous for letting prospects spend a year or more in the AHL after other organizations would have considered them ready to play in the NHL. Netminder Petr Mrazek, one prominent recent example, spent parts of three seasons in the AHL before not just winning a regular NHL role, but winning the starter’s gig over incumbent Jimmy Howard. Looking back at Howard’s day, he had to spend four years in the AHL before ascending to the NHL throne. Tomas Tatar has 258 AHL games on his resume, while fellow young scorer Gustav Nyquist has 137.

The change was most prominent in the case of Dylan Larkin, who made the NHL team directly out of college, after only a single campaign with the Michigan Wolverines. While his scoring pace slowed down in the second half, 45 points in 80 games as a 19 year-old is more proof than anyone would need to say that the AHL was not really necessary in his case. While not as extreme, 21 year-old Andreas Athanasiou earned a callup around mid-season this year after only one and a half AHL campaigns (83 total games). His speed (also Larkin’s calling card) won over the Detroit faithful and his name is already penciled into the 2016-17 NHL lineup.

NHL: MAR 24 Canadiens at Red WingsThere were many who hoped for a similar quick ascension to the NHL from former first rounder Anthony Mantha, and in fairness, he did receive a late season cameo when the Wings were desperate for goals. Called up in mid-March, he played in ten games for the Wings, starting off with 14:50 of ice time in his debut and steadily dwindling to 6:27 18 days later. After three games in the press box, he was returned to Grand Rapids to help the AHL club in their playoff run, having been deemed surplus to requirements in an NHL postseason berth. While Mantha was drafted (20th overall, 2013) with the promise of being a big time sniper, scoring 50 goals in his draft year and following that up with 57 in his QMJHL finale, the pro game has proven to be rather more difficult for the still young winger. After two seasons and 36 AHL goals, rumors of poor work ethic and immaturity have begun to follow Mantha around like a car with a loose tail pipe.

Mantha still possesses a plus shot and the type of size that can cause scouts to drool, there are gaps in his package that prevent him from putting it all together. While I would generally ignore, or severely downgrade allegations about a players’ personality/character, in his case, I have heard it from multiple sources, and it is the sort of thing that is visible on the ice as well. A scout of my acquaintance, when asked how he identifies work ethic on the ice, listed the player’s willingness to compete for pucks, willingness to expend for second efforts when his first lunges failed, backchecking energy, giving up on plays that require more than minimal work, going to bench with haste when his shift is over, playing with the same energy away from the puck as when the puck is on his stick, and work rate at getting open or evading coverage. Unfortunately, a few of those traits are common elements of Mantha’s game. He takes too long to transition from the offensive zone to the defensive zone after his team has lost the puck. His shifts can stretch on well after his nominal linemates have returned to the bench. He will hang out on the ice to bicker at opponents when he should be transitioning or coming off the ice. He can be lethargic when the puck is not on his stick or on its way there. He is still only 21 years old and it is not yet too late for him to figure it out, but right now there is no question in my mind that the former Val-d’Or Foreurs star is wasting too much of his prodigal natural talents.

Tyler Bertuzzi, LW, Grand Rapids (AHL) (58th overall, 2013)

After selecting Mantha, the Wings had two second rounders, the latter of which was used on Bertuzzi, whose uncle Todd played in Detroit from 2009-2014. The young Bertuzzi did not put up the numbers of Mantha this year, nor does he have anywhere near the physical gifts, but he has all of things that Mantha does not. First, in fairness, this was only Bertuzzi’s rookie professional season, while Mantha was in his second go round, so Bertuzzi’s total of 30 points was actually not too far off Mantha’s rookie total of 34. In some ways like the aforementioned Mantha, Bertuzzi’s two main attributes as a player are his excellent wrist shot and his physical game. The shot is powerful yet also features a quick release as he needs little maneuvering to get into shooting position. Bertuzzi will score more goals in future seasons and the shot will beat NHL netminders with regularity when it comes time to prove it. His physical game is very different from Mantha’s however. While the first rounder gets decent marks on that portion of his game mostly for his gargantuan size and his willingness (however infrequent and mistimed it may be), the second rounder is always on. He is a tenacious player who does not back down from any challenge. Part of his development will need to include learning when to dial it back, as his 133 penalty minute were 39 more than the runner up with the Griffins and finished 20th league wide. It is notable though, that of the 19 players who spent more time in the box than Bertuzzi last year, only one equaled his 30 points.

Bertuzzi is also a strong skater, who gets into his second gear quickly. There is little fancy in his game, but he is as dogged on the puck as he is off of it. The Sudbury native plays the game at a very high pace and would benefit from another season with the Griffins to learn to slow the game down and let the action come to him, replacing impulsiveness with forethought. Tyler Bertuzzi projects as a bottom six winger with skill, the likes of which all successful Red Wings teams for the last 25 years have had at least two, including Uncle Todd.

AHL: DEC 16 Grand Rapids Griffins at Lake Erie MonstersMartin Frk, RW, Grand Rapids (AHL) (49th overall, 2012)

In some ways, Frk hews to the old method of player development for Detroit with long AHL apprenticeships. The Czechian sniper has just completed his third season with the Griffins without having appeared in a single game for the Red Wings. His production has improved in each AHL season, starting with 12 points in 50 games in 2013-14, improving to 12 points in 32 games in 2014-15 (e spent the majority of the season in the ECHL, where he scored well over one point per game), and finishing this season with 44 points, including 27 goals, in 67 games.

By this time, the former second round pick does everything at a solid level, after taking great strides forward this year. A solid skater with a very hard shot, he could stand to improve its accuracy, but the velocity is there to be a weapon from mid-range and a bit beyond. Frk has plus puck skills and has proven able to beat AHL defenders one on one with regularity. His offensive instincts are very strong as he senses where better scoring opportunities will take place and knows how to get himself and/or the puck there. Another new facet to Frk’s game this season has been a level of physicality that was previously lacking. He has a solid NHL ready body and shows his strength when fighting for loose pucks with tenacity or finishing checks, which he does with aplomb. While penalties were previously a rarity, he jumped to well over one minute in the box per game this year as aggression is never far from crossing the line. Frk is still young enough to grow into a second line role, although his new found jam would allow him to easily slot in on a lower line. I expect him to contribute regularly in Detroit next season.

Robbie Russo, D, Grand Rapids (AHL) (UFA, signed Aug. 16, 2015. Originally drafted 95 overall, 2011 by NY Islanders)

After four solid seasons with Notre Dame, Russo, once a fourth round pick of the New York Islanders, did not come to terms with the team that drafted him and signed as a free agent with the Detroit organization last summer. In most every respect, his rookie pro season was a successful and his +/-, generally a maligned stat, was nonetheless the best one in the AHL at +40, more than double the runner up from Grand Rapids, and just beating out five Toronto Marlies. His 39 points in 71 games also made him the offensive leader among Grand Rapids blueliners.

Russo is a solid skater, capable of leading a rush, but also recognizing when it would be better to pass the puck and peel back to his spot along the blueline. He is equally at ease carrying the puck or distributing it and his passes tend to be smart ones, whether to evade danger or to create a scoring chance for his team. Russo is calm with the puck when carrying it on the point, regardless of the pressure being placed upon him, keeping his feet moving until he finds a seam to move it to a better positioned teammate or a way to shake the checker. A solid defender as well, he keeps tight gaps and excels at closing off the distance between himself and the puck carrier until the opponent has nowhere left to turn and no more room to maneuver the puck. The Illinois native still has room to improve in his game, as he will go out of his way to avoid shooting the puck at times, and he can be a little soft, but the right handed shooter has the core tools of the modern puck moving defenseman in plus mobility, puck skills and hockey sense. Assuming Kyle Quincey is not brought back to Motown, I expect Russo to challenge for a spot on the third pairing and grow over time to a number three spot. 

Chase Pearson, C, Youngstown (USHL) (140th overall, 2015)

The son of former NHL’er Scott Pearson, Chase, like many other bloodline prospects, has a good head for the game. The University of Maine commit had a very strong second season for Youngstown in the USHL, a season that saw him selected to represent Team USA at the World Junior A Challenge. Pearson has plus size and plays like he knows it – although he will never be as physical as his father was. Although he lacks his father’s elite toughness, Chase beats his old man when it comes to puck skills. A good carrier and playmaker, the former fifth round pick sees the game well and helps make his teammates better. He will have his work cut out for him next year with the Black Bears, coming off a horrible season and with a roster without a great deal of present talent.

Alexander Kadeykin, C, SKA St. Petersburg (KHL) (201st overall, 2014)

According to Hockey Prospectus writer Alessandro Seren Rosso, Kadeykin is a big and intelligent pivot who makes up in hockey sense and toughness what he lacks in puck skills. More a player who does his best work in front of the crease or in the corners than in the slot, Kadeykin is a good enough skater who does enough of the little things as a center that he profiles in a similar vein to a player the likes of Paul Gaustad. A safe player who should be reliable in a defensive role or taking key faceoffs, he could be a solid bottom line center if he comes over to North America as well as a mainstay on the penalty kill. In other words, he is more likely to be the next Joakim Andersson than the next Pavel Datsyuk.

Michael McKee, D, Western Michigan (NCAA) (140th overall, 2012)

A collegian with eight points across three seasons would normally not be a cause for spilling much virtual ink, but McKee intrigues nonetheless. A very large individual at 6-5”, 229, McKee skates very well for a big man and shows no hesitation to joining, or even leading the rush. He skates with very big strides and can chase down almost anyone. He has been used at LW as well as on the blueline for the Broncos. Befitting his size, he is also a very physical player, although he has toned that aspect of his game down considerably since his days in the USHL where he earned 529 penalty minutes in two seasons for the Lincoln Stars. Western Michigan has an impressive class of incoming freshmen joining next season, which should help McKee play a more prominent role as a senior. While he is no sure bet to earn an ELC after graduating, he is definitely one to watch next season.