Charts

 

During the time period when writing the Yearbook, some basic fundamentals used in some element of analysis don’t ever see the light of day. Summer 2013 was no different, particularly, with scoring in the shortened season requiring extrapolation over 82 games – which isn’t a very good indication of a true production, overlooking a variety of variables affecting game outcomes

There has to be a starting point however and instead of normalizing 2012-13 over 82 games, I took an approach that leaned heavily on ratios rather than hard numbers.

I also wanted to keep the shortened season data separate from the longer term averages to maintain integrity of independent running average directly compared to the short season. This meant using   2012-13 5v5 production rate stats (on a per60 basis) in relative comparison to the player’s 3-year and 5-year averages ending with the season 2011-12 – excluding ’12-13.

The key to this exercise wasn’t to make a definitive determination of the player’s future value, but rather an analytic starting point with a goal of answering the initial question, ‘how did players produce in the shortened season, relative to longer term trends. This was a beginning point, not the end result.

I won’t include a lot of commentary on players considering the amount of detail already prevalent in the McKeen’s Yearbook write-ups, however all those poolies (and writers looking for previews) may want to keep an eye on the players listed based on these preliminary results.

RATIOS

As an example, I will use goals/60. All the results here are based on 5v5 data via hockeyanlaysis.com.

Dividing ’12-13 goals/60 by the 3-year average (’12-13/3yr average) will result in a comparative ratio of the shortened season’s production relative to the player’s 3-year average. There are one of three possible results.

A one (1) indicates the player’s scoring ratio matched the 3-year goals/60 rate. A number greater than one meant the player outperformed his 3-year average. Less than one meant he underperformed.

SHOTS/60

The essential driving factor here is shots on goal per 60 minutes, tweaking the filtering criteria depending on the ratio.

To isolate underperformers, I used the following criteria:

SOG/60 > 1

Goals/60 <1

This returned a list of players that fired pucks at a rate greater than their 3-year average but didn’t score at the same clip than in the past (despite the uptick in shots/60 ratio)

For outperformers:

SOG/60 < 1

Goals/60 >1

The returned players fired less than their 3-year average, yet scored at a clip greater than their 3-year average.

The third filter was to determine consistency – particularly in shooting rates. This required incorporating 5-year average ratios as well, adding another long(er) term ratio filtering down the listings. In the end, 26 players made the final filter, some interesting names, some others negligible in the grand scheme.

Each category list can be quite big, so I’m going to split this into separate posts. This first one focuses on players that underperformed with a goals/60 ratio less than 1 and SOG/60 ration greater than 1.

Underperformed

A quick note here. Players like Matt Calvert has been developing over the 3-year period, so tht in itself must be taken into consideration when looking at the raw numbers. Bubble players like Kaspars Daugavins has an effect here too, with increased ice time instead of small samples comprising the overall 3-year averages. To reiterate, this analysis is a starting point, not the end means.

Across the NHL, 86 players underperformed their goals/60 ratio, a value less than one (with a shooting percentage greater than zero) while firing at a SOG/60 ratio greater than 1.

Of those 86 two NHL teams were unrepresented, Calgary and Toronto. When including players with a zero shooting percentage 149 were ranked, including multiple Flames and only one Leaf player made the list, Mark Fraser.

When prepping for your draft or looking at production comparisons for the shortened season, keep these ratios in mind (look at David Jones!!).

 Here's the complete list broken down by forwards and defensemen.

Forwards Relative to 3-yr average

Player Name Team Sh% G/60 A/60 1stA/60 Pts/60 SOG/60
KYLE PALMIERI Anaheim 0.78 0.97 2.03 1.82 1.37 1.25
PATRICE BERGERON Boston 0.67 0.76 1.14 0.77 1.00 1.13
KASPARS DAUGAVINS Boston 0.41 0.52 1.74 0.00 0.98 1.27
TYLER SEGUIN Boston 0.79 0.89 0.92 0.74 0.91 1.13
JORDAN CARON Boston 0.43 0.48 0.81 0.81 0.66 1.14
RICH PEVERLEY Boston 0.70 0.70 0.55 0.54 0.61 1.00
JORDAN STAAL Carolina 0.89 0.94 0.75 0.69 0.83 1.06
DRAYSON BOWMAN Carolina 0.72 0.81 0.63 0.63 0.73 1.13
JEFF SKINNER Carolina 0.46 0.58 0.57 0.74 0.57 1.24
TIM WALLACE Carolina 0.46 0.62 0.31 0.47 0.42 1.37
MICHAEL FROLIK Chicago 0.68 0.76 1.18 1.16 1.01 1.12
MICHAL HANDZUS Chicago 0.49 0.58 0.88 1.12 0.77 1.19
PAUL STASTNY Colorado 0.86 0.86 0.45 0.13 0.59 1.00
DAVID JONES Colorado 0.13 0.15 0.85 1.05 0.47 1.12
MATT CALVERT Columbus 0.71 0.92 0.67 1.05 0.78 1.30
MARIAN GABORIK Columbus 0.55 0.62 0.41 0.50 0.52 1.14
CORY EMMERTON Detroit 0.85 0.92 0.86 1.29 0.90 1.08
VALTTERI FILPPULA Detroit 0.61 0.69 0.64 0.77 0.66 1.14
JORDAN EBERLE Edmonton 0.81 0.97 0.85 1.01 0.90 1.20
ALES HEMSKY Edmonton 0.68 0.75 0.74 0.64 0.75 1.11
TOMAS FLEISCHMANN Florida 0.88 0.88 0.97 0.86 0.92 1.00
MARCEL GOC Florida 0.58 0.60 0.68 1.13 0.65 1.04
PETER MUELLER Florida 0.52 0.73 0.58 0.68 0.64 1.41
BRAD RICHARDSON Los Angeles 0.64 0.70 2.48 1.74 1.74 1.09
DUSTIN PENNER Los Angeles 0.30 0.36 1.75 1.57 1.10 1.22
DWIGHT KING Los Angeles 0.56 0.57 0.41 0.48 0.48 1.02
PIERRE-MARC BOUCHARD Minnesota 0.87 0.90 0.96 1.07 0.94 1.04
CAL CLUTTERBUCK Minnesota 0.69 0.70 0.91 1.02 0.79 1.01
ZACH PARISE Minnesota 0.77 0.79 0.79 1.02 0.79 1.03
MATT HALISCHUK Nashville 0.73 0.83 0.82 1.50 0.82 1.14
PAUL GAUSTAD Nashville 0.35 0.37 0.58 0.44 0.49 1.06
DAVID CLARKSON New Jersey 0.79 0.92 1.04 0.73 0.97 1.16
PATRIK ELIAS New Jersey 0.80 0.89 0.70 0.77 0.77 1.11
ADAM HENRIQUE New Jersey 0.90 0.98 0.28 0.59 0.50 1.08
MATT MOULSON NY Islanders 0.48 0.55 2.24 3.21 1.25 1.15
MATT MARTIN NY Islanders 0.88 0.97 1.09 1.86 1.03 1.11
FRANS NIELSEN NY Islanders 0.47 0.50 1.24 1.02 0.99 1.07
KEITH AUCOIN NY Islanders 0.57 0.91 0.49 0.73 0.62 1.60
RYANE CLOWE NY Rangers 0.30 0.33 1.26 1.16 0.90 1.10
CARL HAGELIN NY Rangers 0.71 0.91 0.85 1.10 0.88 1.28
MILAN MICHALEK Ottawa 0.89 0.91 1.30 0.43 1.10 1.03
ZACK SMITH Ottawa 0.58 0.64 1.12 1.28 0.89 1.10
ERIK CONDRA Ottawa 0.70 0.72 0.85 0.37 0.80 1.04
CHRIS NEIL Ottawa 0.62 0.70 0.60 0.69 0.65 1.14
CLAUDE GIROUX Philadelphia 0.66 0.70 1.01 1.17 0.90 1.06
MIKKEL BOEDKER Phoenix 0.45 0.54 1.37 0.61 1.01 1.19
LAURI KORPIKOSKI Phoenix 0.66 0.92 0.59 0.78 0.73 1.39
JAROME IGINLA Pittsburgh 0.76 0.76 1.02 1.21 0.90 1.00
JAMES SHEPPARD San Jose 0.74 0.94 1.88 0.94 1.52 1.27
RAFFI TORRES San Jose 0.89 0.93 1.43 1.63 1.19 1.04
T.J. GALIARDI San Jose 0.70 0.81 1.34 1.87 1.10 1.15
JOE THORNTON San Jose 0.58 0.65 0.82 0.91 0.78 1.12
PATRICK MARLEAU San Jose 0.87 0.95 0.56 0.18 0.75 1.10
ANDREW DESJARDINS San Jose 0.72 0.83 0.15 0.23 0.32 1.15
CHRIS PORTER St. Louis 0.72 0.88 1.75 2.30 1.32 1.21
ADAM CRACKNELL St. Louis 0.57 0.65 1.29 0.86 0.96 1.13
JADEN SCHWARTZ St. Louis 0.73 0.99 0.85 0.00 0.92 1.35
ALEX BURROWS Vancouver 0.84 0.96 0.82 1.11 0.89 1.14
JAY BEAGLE Washington 0.43 0.47 3.32 4.96 1.32 1.09
MATHIEU PERREAULT Washington 0.45 0.54 1.47 1.99 0.98 1.21
WOJTEK WOLSKI Washington 0.61 0.67 0.49 0.67 0.55 1.11
NIK ANTROPOV Winnipeg 0.50 0.59 1.00 1.23 0.83 1.17
ERIC TANGRADI Winnipeg 0.83 0.87 0.43 0.29 0.52 1.04

 

Defensemen Relative to 3-yr average

Player Name Team Sh% G/60 A/60 1stA/60 Pts/60 SOG/60
ADAM MCQUAID Boston 0.79 0.79 0.56 0.68 0.63 1.01
CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF Buffalo 0.77 0.79 1.19 1.93 1.06 1.04
JAMIE MCBAIN Carolina 0.50 0.51 1.06 1.11 0.92 1.03
JAY HARRISON Carolina 0.58 0.60 1.10 1.32 0.91 1.03
MARC-ANDRE BERGERON Carolina 0.58 0.75 0.71 0.75 0.73 1.29
JAN HEJDA Colorado 0.40 0.49 1.10 1.47 0.93 1.23
JACK JOHNSON Columbus 0.76 0.79 1.26 1.38 1.13 1.05
ALEX GOLIGOSKI Dallas 0.70 0.73 1.51 1.04 1.24 1.04
LADISLAV SMID Edmonton 0.64 0.71 0.43 0.00 0.50 1.11
DREW DOUGHTY Los Angeles 0.35 0.48 0.51 0.57 0.49 1.36
FRANCIS BOUILLON Montreal 0.68 0.86 1.83 2.84 1.59 1.25
JONATHON BLUM Nashville 0.31 0.38 1.41 1.13 1.01 1.21
ROMAN JOSI Nashville 0.37 0.45 1.05 1.51 0.81 1.21
ANDY GREENE New Jersey 0.80 0.91 0.65 0.23 0.68 1.15
LUBOMIR VISNOVSKY NY Islanders 0.41 0.53 0.44 0.34 0.48 1.32
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO NY Rangers 0.18 0.28 1.59 2.93 1.11 1.53
DAN GIRARDI NY Rangers 0.44 0.56 1.08 0.63 0.97 1.27
SERGEI GONCHAR Ottawa 0.48 0.54 1.66 1.29 1.41 1.14
ERIK KARLSSON Ottawa 0.57 0.88 1.30 1.63 1.15 1.54
BRUNO GERVAIS Philadelphia 0.52 0.61 1.12 0.47 0.98 1.18
LUKE SCHENN Philadelphia 0.34 0.41 0.73 0.43 0.66 1.20
OLIVER EKMAN-LARSSON Phoenix 0.64 0.68 1.52 1.56 1.21 1.06
ERIC BREWER Tampa Bay 0.76 0.78 1.55 1.98 1.20 1.04
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